Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
